Population Health and Vital Statistics

Population Denominators

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2008

The 2008 population denominators assume that Arizona grew by 1.6 percent from 6,432,007 residents in 2007 to 6,534,921 in 2008. The slowest rate of population growth since 1990 was combined with an unprecedented decrease of 3.4 percent in the number of resident births (the only decrease since 1991). Hispanics or Latinos experienced a 6.8 percent decrease in the number of births. Our estimates take into account the decrease in the number of resident births and its impact on the estimated size of the population <1 year of age. In addition, the 2008 estimates are based on the assumption that factors affecting the population growth such as the number of illegal residents who had been driven out of the state, the decline in construction jobs, the number of foreclosures, the number of built but vacant homes, the decline in the number of resident births, etc., all apply primarily to metropolitan, not rural, counties. Our estimates of the total population of Apache, Cochise, Coconino, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Navajo, Santa Cruz, and Yuma counties agree with the 2008 population estimates developed by Population Statistics Unit in the Arizona Department of Commerce. Our estimates for Maricopa, Mohave, Pima, Pinal, and Yavapai counties are lower than the estimates of the Population Statistics Unit. The estimated total of 6,534,921 residents of Arizona in 2008 is similar to the latest estimate from the U.S. Census Bureau (6,500,180) but it is substantially lower than the Population Statistics Unit estimate of 6,629,455.

Note: Information provided in Excel files.